Change and Continuity in the 2000 and 2002 Elections,9781568027425

Change and Continuity in the 2000 and 2002 Elections

by ; ;
ISBN13: 9781568027425
ISBN10: 1568027427
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2003-03-01
Publisher(s): Cq Pr
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Author Biography

Paul R. Abramson is professor of political science at Michigan State University John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University David W. Rohde is University Distinguished Professor in the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University

Table of Contents

Tables and Figures vii
Preface xi
PART 1 The 2000 Presidential Election 1 (66)
1 The Nomination Struggle
12 (19)
Who Ran
13 (4)
The Rules of the Nomination System
17 (6)
Why Bush Won
23 31 (2)
Why Gore Won
25 (2)
The Conventions
27 (4)
2 The General Election Campaign
31 (15)
The Strategic Context and the Candidates' Choices
31 (2)
From Labor Day to the Debates
33 (3)
The Debates: The Republicans Surpass Low Expectations
36(2)
Final Efforts
38 (5)
Did the Campaign Matter?
43 (3)
3 The Election Results
46 (21)
The Election Rules
51 (2)
The Pattern of Results
53 (3)
State-by-State Results
56 (5)
Electoral Change in the Postwar South
61(2)
The Electoral-Vote Balance
63(4)
PART 2 Voting Behavior in the 2000 Presidential Election 67(126)
4 Who Voted?
71(25)
Turnout from 1828 through 1920
71(3)
Turnout from 1920 through 2000
74(3)
Turnout among Social Groups
77(7)
Why Has Turnout Declined?
84(7)
Does Low Turnout Matter?
91 (5)
5 Social Forces and the Vote
96 (25)
How Social Groups Voted in 2000
97(9)
How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years
106(13)
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down
119 (2)
6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
121 (28)
Attitudes toward the Candidates
122 (6)
Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations
128 (2)
The Concerns of the Electorate
130 (2)
Issue Positions and Perceptions
132 (3)
Issue Voting Criteria
135 (4)
Apparent Issue Voting in 2000
139 (9)
Conclusion
148 (1)
7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
149 (19)
What Is Retrospective Voting?
150 (3)
Evaluations of Government Performance
153 (3)
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
156(5)
Evaluations of the Incumbent 161
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations
161 (5)
Conclusion
166 (2)
8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
168 (25)
Party Identification: The Standard View
168 (1)
Party Identification: An Alternative View
169 (1)
Party Identification in the Electorate
170 (6)
Party Identification and the Vote
176 (2)
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations
178 (11)
Conclusion
189 (4)
PART 3 The 2000 and 2002 Congressional Elections 193 (86)
9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2000
198 (40)
Election Outcomes in 2000
198 (11)
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes
209(11)
The 2000 Elections: The Impact on Congress
220(7)
The 2002 Elections and Beyond
227(11)
10 The Congressional Electorate in 2000
238(14)
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote
238(4)
Issues and the Congressional Vote
242(1)
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote
243(1)
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote
244(2)
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum
246(2)
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote
248(2)
Conclusion
250(2)
11 The 2002 Congressional Elections
252(27)
The Pattern of Outcomes
252(2)
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results
254(4)
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections
258 (11)
The 2002 Elections: The Impact on Congress
269 (4)
The 2004 Elections and Beyond
273 (6)
PART 4 The 2000 and 2002 Elections in Perspective 279 (18)
12 The 2000 and 2002 Elections and the Future of American Politics
282 (15)
Prospects for the Democrats
286 (4)
Prospects for the Republicans
290 (3)
Prospects for a New Political Party
293 (2)
Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility
295 (2)
Notes 297 (52)
Suggested Readings 349 (10)
Index 359

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