Acknowledgments |
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xv | |
Prologue |
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1 | (6) |
The Power of Ideas |
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7 | (28) |
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The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View |
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10 | (4) |
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14 | (7) |
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Epoch One: Physics and Chemistry |
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Epoch Two: Biology and DNA |
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Epoch Five: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence |
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Epoch Six: The Universe Wakes Up |
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21 | (14) |
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A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns |
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35 | (76) |
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The Life Cycle of a Paradigm |
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The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle |
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51 | (5) |
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The Life Cycle of a Technology |
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From Goat Skins to Downloads |
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56 | (16) |
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Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? |
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Fractal Dimensions and the Brain |
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DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization |
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72 | (24) |
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Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata |
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Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules? |
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The Singularity as Economic Imperative |
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96 | (15) |
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Get Eighty Trillion Dollars---Limited Time Only |
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Deflation . . . a Bad Thing? |
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Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain |
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111 | (32) |
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The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies |
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111 | (11) |
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The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing |
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Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet |
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The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain |
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122 | (5) |
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Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing |
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The Limits of Computation |
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127 | (16) |
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The Limits of Nano-computing |
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Setting a Date for the Singularity |
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Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain |
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Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light |
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Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain |
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143 | (62) |
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Reverse Engineering the Brain: An Overview of the Task |
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144 | (5) |
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New Brain-Imaging and Modeling Tools |
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The Software of the Brain |
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Analytic Versus Neuromorphic Modeling of the Brain |
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How Complex Is the Brain? |
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Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? |
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149 | (8) |
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The Brain's Circuits Are Very Slow |
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But It's Massively Parallel |
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The Brain Combines Analog and Digital Phenomena |
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Most of the Details in the Brain Are Random |
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The Brain Uses Emergent Properties |
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The Patterns Are Important |
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The Brain Is Deeply Connected |
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The Brain Does Have an Architecture of Regions |
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The Design of a Brain Region Is Simpler than the Design of a Neuron |
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Trying to Understand Our Own Thinking: The Accelerating Pace of Research |
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157 | (10) |
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New Tools for Scanning the Brain |
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Building Models of the Brain |
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167 | (27) |
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Subneural Models: Synapses and Spines |
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Modeling Regions of the Brain |
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A Neuromorphic Model: The Cerebellum |
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Another Example: Watts's Model of the Auditory Regions |
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Other Works in Progress: An Artificial Hippocampus and an Artificial Olivocerebellar Region |
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Understanding Higher-Level Functions: Imitation, Prediction, and Emotion |
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Interfacing the Brain and Machines |
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194 | (1) |
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The Accelerating Pace of Reverse Engineering the Brain |
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195 | (3) |
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The Scalability of Human Intelligence |
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Uploading the Human Brain |
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198 | (7) |
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GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions |
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205 | (94) |
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Genetics: The Intersection of Information and Biology |
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206 | (20) |
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Can We Really Live Forever? |
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Reversing Degenerative Disease |
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Human Cloning: The Least Interesting Application of Cloning Technology |
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Why Is Cloning Important? |
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Preserving Endangered Species and Restoring Extinct Ones |
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Human Somatic-Cell Engineering |
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Nanotechnology: The Intersection of Information and the Physical World |
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226 | (33) |
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Upgrading the Cell Nucleus with a Nanocomputer and Nanobot |
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Applications of Nanotechnology to the Environment |
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Nanobots in the Bloodstream |
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259 | (40) |
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Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider? |
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The Specialized-Hardware Advantage |
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Deep Blue Versus Deep Fritz |
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Significant Software Gains |
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Are Human Chess Players Doomed? |
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Military and Intelligence |
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Business, Finance, and Manufacturing |
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Manufacturing and Robotics |
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299 | (70) |
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300 | (12) |
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Redesigning the Digestive System |
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Redesigning the Human Brain |
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312 | (8) |
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320 | (10) |
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The Transformation to Nonbiological Experience |
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The Longevity of Information |
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... on Warfare: The Remote, Robotic, Robust, Size-Reduced, Virtual-Reality Paradigm |
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330 | (5) |
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335 | (2) |
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337 | (5) |
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341 | (1) |
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... on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe |
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342 | (27) |
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The Limits of Computation Revisited |
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Expanding Beyond the Solar System |
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The Speed of Light Revisited |
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Changing the Speed of Light |
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The Fermi Paradox Revisited |
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The Anthropic Principle Revisited |
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Intelligence as the Destiny of the Universe |
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The Ultimate Utility Function |
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Why Intelligence Is More Powerful than Physics |
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A Universe-Scale Computer |
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Ich bin ein Singularitarian |
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369 | (22) |
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The Vexing Question of Consciousness |
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376 | (6) |
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382 | (5) |
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The Singularity as Transcendence |
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387 | (4) |
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The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR |
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391 | (36) |
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Intertwined Benefits . . . |
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396 | (1) |
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397 | (3) |
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A Panoply of Existential Risks |
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400 | (8) |
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The Precautionary Principle |
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The Smaller the Interaction, the Larger the Explosive Potential |
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Our Simulation Is Turned Off |
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GNR: The Proper Focus of Promise Versus Peril |
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The Inevitability of a Transformed Future |
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Totalitarian Relinquishment |
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408 | (2) |
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The Idea of Relinquishment |
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410 | (6) |
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Fine-Grained Relinquishment |
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The Threat from Fundamentalism |
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Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation |
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416 | (6) |
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Protection from ``Unfriendly'' Strong AI |
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Civil Liberties in an Age of Asymmetric Warfare |
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A Program for GNR Defense |
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422 | (5) |
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427 | (58) |
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427 | (5) |
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The Criticism from Incredulity |
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432 | (1) |
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The Criticism from Malthus |
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433 | (2) |
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Exponential Trends Don't Last Forever |
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A Virtually Unlimited Limit |
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The Criticism from Software |
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435 | (7) |
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Software Price-Performance |
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Software Development Productivity |
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The Ultimate Source of Intelligent Algorithms |
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The Criticism from Analog Processing |
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442 | (1) |
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The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing |
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442 | (8) |
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A Computer's Inherent Dualism |
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The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing |
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450 | (3) |
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The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis |
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453 | (3) |
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The Criticism from Failure Rates |
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456 | (1) |
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The Criticism from ``Lock-In'' |
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457 | (1) |
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The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious? |
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458 | (11) |
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The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide |
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469 | (1) |
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The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation |
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470 | (3) |
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The Unbearable Slowness of Social Institutions |
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The Criticism from Theism |
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473 | (6) |
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The Criticism from Holism |
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479 | (6) |
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485 | (4) |
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Resources and Contact Information |
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489 | (2) |
Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited |
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491 | (6) |
Notes |
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497 | (106) |
Index |
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603 | |